5 Years from now- where will reps be compared to gen?

[gunzie]

Afternoon all,

For anyone that has been in the rep game for more than 5 years then maybe you can share your opinion on a question.

Looking back 5 years from now and comparing the reps then with today, where do you think reps will be in 5 years from now?

[the_new_kid]

They will be gone because legislation will be more strict. I'm in the Rep business for more than 10 years and the current quality is the best it will ever be/ ever was. But China and Azia are becoming more 'west' and political en commercial pressure is increasing.

[Eiderdaus]

They will be gone because legislation will be more strict. I'm in the Rep business for more than 10 years and the current quality is the best it will ever be/ ever was. But China and Azia are becoming more 'west' and political en commercial pressure is increasing.

im thinking the same. china is adapting quickly and i guess soon they will have the same ecosystem and laws and regulations that western countries have. a "friend" from china told me how forceful und brutal the governmen is now already punishing repfactories and dealers. the items will be destroyed in public on the streets and whose not able to bribe will go to jail.
until the repbusiness is gone i will continue collecting the best pieces nobody knows how much time is left

[Hyjynx]

I take a rather more optimistic view. Counterfeiting and Intellectual Property piracy is a huge multi billion dollars industry in China. Despite grave deterrents (literally speaking) in place, they haven't done much to put a dent in that market. Rather it grows in sophistication. As long as there continues to be a huge gap in the cost of production vis a vis retail price of luxury goods, there will always be reps/fakes, and even better ones than we currently have. Once in a while the Chinese government will put up an "awe and shock" show of force only to placate western interests. So fear not, friends. The future of reps is bright and sunny.


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[Daddyoftwo]

I suspect they will be here to stay.
I imagine the gen brands will work harder to innovate and design more complex materials (Pam are already doing this) and make it harder for the factories to replicate well enough but brands like R fac, will never change their designs.
They are a slave to it and now the rep facs are catching up, will need to do something very brave.
Doubt they will though.

[rek001]

Possibly the rep industry will be here to stay - BUT - it will be more and more difficult to pay for, and to receive the package safely without confiscation.

It's already starting.

[thadon112]

i would say its here to stay. and will probably be better but more expensive.

[PeteB]

An interesting topic. The rep industry imho has been growing explosively, mainly because the price multiplier of "luxury" watches, over "normal" watches, has gotten to ridiculous levels. As long as that trend holds (and it looks like it will), it will be very difficult for the replica manufacturing to be curtailed.

And, while there is increased demand for more sophisticated reps, the manufacturers will oblige by further developing and perfecting reps. While the current IP tolerance in China may diminish, there are ample opportunities for reps to be made, in Vietnam, Thailand, India, Indonesia, as well as other places.

In short, we will see:

1. Reps getting better and more sophisticated, as well as more expensive
2. Trade in reps getting more restrictive and difficult, but still possible
3. New "replica powerhouses", such as Vietnam and Thailand spring up
4. Increased IP policing by gen manufacturers as well as increased focus on differentiating design and movement factors (A. Lange & Sohne, Greubel Forsey and F.P. Journe are good examples - they are so well finished and have technically sophisticated movements, that a good rep is practically impossible to find)

[gunzie]

Whats the chance that rep production gets stopped in China? Would the factories just jump ship to another location?

[angelomarra]

very nice topic.
im buying severla tons of raw material and china gov is now going to be very strict in term of envirnomental but also know that they love to take their people happy.
i guess that if eu zone/us will not be very strict we will see a quality very very compared to gen, if we think many super experts found sometimes hard to get rep watches vs rep ones.